National

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Forecast map

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National summary

Scenarios

Distribution of outcomes

Projections by district

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District win probabilities

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Vote projections by district

Data sources

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Code

The code and methodology for the model that generates this forecast is available on GitHub:

https://github.com/stevenwhitlow/us_house_model_2022

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Data

This forecast used data from the following sources:

  1. FiveThirtyEight: generic ballot polling from 2020-2022 and 2022 House candidate names and incumbency status;
  2. ALARM Project and VEST: 2020 presidential election results by precinct;
  3. Redistricting Data Hub: shapefiles for new districts from 2022;
  4. OpenStreetMap: base map data